Elon intervjuas av Norska oljefondens VD

[AGCF]

Vid cirka minut 43 börjar han leka med soundboarden. Han verkar inte ta norrmän på allvar

[spacecoin]

Elon sa tydligen i denna intervjun:

“AI is the fastest advancing technology that I've ever seen of any kind, and I've seen a lot of technology. You know barely a week goes by without some new announcement, and if you look at the amount of AI hardware, the computers coming online that are dedicated to AI, that is increasing what looks like at least by a factor of 10 every year, if not every 6 to nine months. So when you combine the hardware coming online really an order of magnitude increase every you know—call it at least every nine months—and many, many software breakthroughs, if you look at that curve it looks insane. My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year, and then AI, the total amount of sort of sentient compute of AI, I think will probably exceed all humans in 5 years.”

Kort därefter var det en person (Gary Marcus) som satte först 1MUSD på att det var bullshit att vi skulle ha AGI 2025 och uppmanade Elon att ta vadet. Sedan kort därefter vill en annan person (Damion Hänkejh) betta 10 MUSD emot Elon...

Surprise: Elon har inte svarat.

Mitt råd: Lita aldrig på vad Elon säger om AI, robotar eller FSD (och mycket annat...)

[Nect]

Elon sa tydligen i denna intervjun:

“AI is the fastest advancing technology that I've ever seen of any kind, and I've seen a lot of technology. You know barely a week goes by without some new announcement, and if you look at the amount of AI hardware, the computers coming online that are dedicated to AI, that is increasing what looks like at least by a factor of 10 every year, if not every 6 to nine months. So when you combine the hardware coming online really an order of magnitude increase every you know—call it at least every nine months—and many, many software breakthroughs, if you look at that curve it looks insane. My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year, and then AI, the total amount of sort of sentient compute of AI, I think will probably exceed all humans in 5 years.”

Kort därefter var det en person (Gary Marcus) som satte först 1MUSD på att det var bullshit att vi skulle ha AGI 2025 och uppmanade Elon att ta vadet. Sedan kort därefter vill en annan person (Damion Hänkejh) betta 10 MUSD emot Elon...

Surprise: Elon har inte svarat.

Mitt råd: Lita aldrig på vad Elon säger om AI, robotar eller FSD (och mycket annat...)

Svårt att ta någon seriöst som inte ens kan fixa en vettig farthållare eller regnsensor…

[Skyvandrare]

Elon sa tydligen i denna intervjun:

“AI is the fastest advancing technology that I've ever seen of any kind, and I've seen a lot of technology. You know barely a week goes by without some new announcement, and if you look at the amount of AI hardware, the computers coming online that are dedicated to AI, that is increasing what looks like at least by a factor of 10 every year, if not every 6 to nine months. So when you combine the hardware coming online really an order of magnitude increase every you know—call it at least every nine months—and many, many software breakthroughs, if you look at that curve it looks insane. My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year, and then AI, the total amount of sort of sentient compute of AI, I think will probably exceed all humans in 5 years.”

Kort därefter var det en person (Gary Marcus) som satte först 1MUSD på att det var bullshit att vi skulle ha AGI 2025 och uppmanade Elon att ta vadet. Sedan kort därefter vill en annan person (Damion Hänkejh) betta 10 MUSD emot Elon...

Surprise: Elon har inte svarat.

Mitt råd: Lita aldrig på vad Elon säger om AI, robotar eller FSD (och mycket annat...)

Svårt att ta någon seriöst som inte ens kan fixa en vettig farthållare eller regnsensor…

Ahaaa… det är önsketänkande från Elons sida. Han väntar på att AI ska fixa allt han har lovat genom åren.

Jag tror faktiskt att AI kommer leverera …. Ännu mer spektakulära löften som inte uppfylls.

Med det sagt så kommer vår nästa bil bli en till Tesla, för att de är riktigt bra som de är.

[backe]

https://arstechnica.com/information-tec ... next-year/

Booch gives credit to Musk's business successes but casts doubt on his forecasting ability. "Albeit a brilliant if not rapacious businessman, Mr. Musk vastly overestimates both the history as well as the present of AI while simultaneously diminishing the exquisite uniqueness of human intelligence," says Booch. "So in short, his prediction is—to put it in scientific terms—batshit crazy."

So when will we get AI that's smarter than a human? Booch says there's no real way to know at the moment. "I reject the framing of any question that asks when AI will surpass humans in intelligence because it is a question filled with ambiguous terms and considerable emotional and historic baggage," he says. "We are a long, long way from understanding the design that would lead us there."

We also asked Hugging Face AI researcher Dr. Margaret Mitchell to weigh in on Musk's prediction. "Intelligence ... is not a single value where you can make these direct comparisons and have them mean something," she told us in an interview. "There will likely never be agreement on comparisons between human and machine intelligence."

But even with that uncertainty, she feels there is one aspect of AI she can more reliably predict: "I do agree that neural network models will reach a point where men in positions of power and influence, particularly ones with investments in AI, will declare that AI is smarter than humans. By end of next year, sure. That doesn't sound far off base to me."