Next gen 4680 battery

[Zalman3]

[spacecoin]

Tesla är bara hype när det gäller betterier, och mycket annat. Det är bara snack, medan andra levererar.

[Zalman3]

Teslas 4680 batteri produktion i USA kan bli en god affär på grund av stödet på 35 dollar per kWh.

The new law will offer a tax credit for the production of battery cells at a rate of $35 per kilowatt hour the battery can store.

https://www.newstalkflorida.com/feature ... ergy-bill/

[taliz]

Tesla är bara hype när det gäller betterier, och mycket annat. Det är bara snack, medan andra levererar.

Så sa man om deras bilar också när de byggde några tusen om året.
I år går man väl om BMW, Mercedes och Audi i produktion.

[Zalman3]

Tesla är bara hype när det gäller betterier, och mycket annat. Det är bara snack, medan andra levererar.

Så sa man om deras bilar också när de byggde några tusen om året.
I år går man väl om BMW, Mercedes och Audi i produktion.

Inte nog med att man i antal snart passerar vissa tyska premium märken.
Man gör det också med högre vinst.

[Gustafsson]

Ja det är ju kul förstås. Men 4680 kommer att utvecklas som andra batterier med ny kemi och med effektivare tillverkning. Det stora med den cellen är väl det strukturella tänket i bilens chassi.
Längst räckvidd har väl fortfarande MS LR+ Med 18650 celler.

[d3marcus]

Teslas 4680 batteri produktion i USA kan bli en god affär på grund av stödet på 35 dollar per kWh.

The new law will offer a tax credit for the production of battery cells at a rate of $35 per kilowatt hour the battery can store.

https://www.newstalkflorida.com/feature ... ergy-bill/

Tesla tillverkar inga batterier och har aldrig gjort, det är bara FUD. Däremot är de fastighetsägare som hyr ut lokaler till underleverantörer.

[Legato]

Teslas 4680 batteri produktion i USA kan bli en god affär på grund av stödet på 35 dollar per kWh.

The new law will offer a tax credit for the production of battery cells at a rate of $35 per kilowatt hour the battery can store.

https://www.newstalkflorida.com/feature ... ergy-bill/

Tesla tillverkar inga batterier och har aldrig gjort, det är bara FUD. Däremot är de fastighetsägare som hyr ut lokaler till underleverantörer.

Fear, uncertainty and doubt för vem tänkte du?

[spacecoin]

Jag skulle inte kalla det FUD. Det är showmanship, för att använda ett snällt ord. Jag skulle säga att det är som vanligt med Tesla. Man hittar på en narrativ som driver upp kursen. Det är ju helt sant att Tesla står för lokalerna och Panasonic för tekniken bakom cellerna och tillverkningen. Tesla tar cellerna och stoppar dem i en låda. Så har det alltid varit. Nu köper Tesla batterier från BYD, CATL, Panasonic med flera. Deras egen batteri-verksamhet går ju sådär, om man nu kan kalla det en verksamhet när man gjort drygt 1M celler. 3000 celler om dagen i ett år blir det 1M. Tesla startade 2020. Panasonic bygger en fabrik i Kansas för att förse Texas-fabriken med celler.

[Zalman3]

Intressant att bara DBE används på Anoden och inte på Katoden ännu.

[spacecoin]

Det används ju knappt alls eftersom det inte går särskilt bra att skala upp produktionen.

Chefen för Kato Road-anläggningen fick sparken för en månad sedan. Att göra batterier från grunden är tydligen inte lika trivialt som att skruva ihop bilar. Det är tur att Tesla inte säljer dom innan dom i förskott också.

[spacecoin]

"They can produce in small volume, but when they started big volume production, Tesla ended up with many rejects, too many," one of the sources with ties to Tesla told Reuters.
Production yields were so low that all the anticipated cost savings from the new process were lost, the source said.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos- ... 022-09-06/

[taliz]

"They can produce in small volume, but when they started big volume production, Tesla ended up with many rejects, too many," one of the sources with ties to Tesla told Reuters.
Production yields were so low that all the anticipated cost savings from the new process were lost, the source said.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos- ... 022-09-06/

Det var samma sak när man skalade upp produktionen av Model 3.
Massa nyheter om hur mkt material Tesla wasteade.

[spacecoin]

Det var samma sak när man skalade upp produktionen av Model 3.
Massa nyheter om hur mkt material Tesla wasteade.

Det var det säkert. M3 problemen var väl främst Elons övertro på automatisering som orsakade? Man kan inte, i min mening, jämföra att sätta ihop en bil, även om det var en massa nytänk, med lite med lite mer riktig vetenskap som det här handlar om. Tesla får säkert till det förr eller senare. Om ett par veckor är det 2 år sedan battery day...

[Zalman3]

[taliz]

Det var samma sak när man skalade upp produktionen av Model 3.
Massa nyheter om hur mkt material Tesla wasteade.

Det var det säkert. M3 problemen var väl främst Elons övertro på automatisering som orsakade? Man kan inte, i min mening, jämföra att sätta ihop en bil, även om det var en massa nytänk, med lite med lite mer riktig vetenskap som det här handlar om. Tesla får säkert till det förr eller senare. Om ett par veckor är det 2 år sedan battery day...

Alltså tekniken funkar ju, de kan bygga fungerande celler. Dvs "vetenskapen" finns där.
Det är "bara" masstillverkning som är det svåra, dvs samma som när man skalade upp Model 3.

[Zalman3]

[Zalman3]

Teslas batterianläggning startar i början av 2023.

Ett år efter starten av biltillverkningen vill Tesla även tillverka batterier i Brandenburg från 2023. Biltillverkaren presenterade sin nya batteriteknik i Grünheide på söndagen.

https://www.bz-berlin.de/brandenburg/te ... nfang-2023

[Zalman3]

[Zalman3]

4680 Thermal Design and Management // Why Ribbon Cooling is Better



Varför Tabless gör så stor skillnad.

[Zalman3]

Nu har man tydligen startat upp 4680 batteri tillverkning även i Kina.

1. Man säljer redan MY i USA med 4680 batterier.
2. Det sas att Tesla SEMI inte skulle börja säljas innan man fått ordning på 4680 produktionen, eftersom SEMI behöver väldigt mycket batterier. Och att densiteten på batterierna är viktig. Nu börjar officiella leveranser av SEMI 1 december.
3. Man lovar att bilar med 4680 batterier börjar levereras från Berlin i år.
4. Och nu verkar man vara på gång med 4680 batterier även i Kina.
5. Uttalanden om att man inte längre har en brist på batterier. Gör att Powerpack och Megapack tillverkningen rampas snabbt upp. Vet inte om de har 4680 batterier.
Om inte annat så frigör leveranser av 4680 batterier till biltillverkningen, att flöden av icke 4680 batterier kan styras om till Powerpack och Megapack istället.

[martinot]

Tesla är bara hype när det gäller betterier, och mycket annat. Det är bara snack, medan andra levererar.

Så sa man om deras bilar också när de byggde några tusen om året.
I år går man väl om BMW, Mercedes och Audi i produktion.

Jag gillar Volvo av flera skäl som svensk, men det känns ju verkligen som ett klart exempel på en tillverkare som länge snackat visionärt om elbilar, men som i verkligheten levererat extremt dåligt. Mycket snack och väldigt lite verkstad där, tyvärr.

Faktiskt förvånad att Tesla såpass snabbt gick om Volvo i storlek.

4680 kommer nog, som mycket ny teknik/forskning, ta väldigt lång tid att få upp kvalitet och volym på, men det är ju ett steg längre fram än vad de flesta av de andra biltillverkare kommit.

[Zalman3]

Tesla SEMI behöver massor av 4680 batterier.

Tesla Semi production could kick battery cell production into overdrive.

The Tesla Semi could face battery production limits as cell production fights already high demand.

Tesla has long faced an overarching problem, too much demand, and too little supply. No other car maker on the planet can say that there are multi-month (and sometimes year) long waiting lists for every vehicle they manufacture. But as Tesla hopes to introduce the Tesla Semi by the end of the year, they may only exacerbate their already supply-constrained production numbers.

Breaking it down by the numbers gives a better picture of the battery cell issue the Tesla Semi could face. Tesla’s 4680 cells each have an energy capacity of 98Wh; for context, 828 cells are needed to make a single Tesla Model Y with an 81.1kWh battery. With this capacity-per-cell spec and the specs that have been published by Tesla about the Tesla Semi, we can estimate the capacity of the truck’s (likely enormous) battery.

The Tesla website states that the Tesla Semi, while fully laden, will have a max range of 500 miles and use under 2kWh per mile. Assuming a worst-case scenario where the truck uses exactly 2kWh per mile for 500 miles, the Tesla Semi would have a battery capacity of 1000kWh. And even if the Tesla Semi could achieve 1kWh per mile, the battery would be 500kWh.

At 1000kWh, or 1 million Wh, this would require 10,204 Tesla 4680 cells or 5102 cells for the 500kWh battery. This enormous amount of cells could be used on 12 Tesla Model Y batteries.

Perhaps more interestingly, from the battery capacity, you can also infer the charging speed that Tesla will aim for. The Tesla Semi site advertises charging “up to 70% of range in 30 minutes.” Assuming the 1000kWh battery, and even if Tesla is referring to charging from 10% to 70% (a 60% gain or 600kWh of energy), the charger would have to output 1,200kWh (1.2MWh) of power to achieve that or 600kWh for the 500kWh battery.

However, this leads to more questions than answers. Will Tesla cap Tesla Semi production to protect their consumer offerings? Will Tesla consumer vehicles shift away from 4680 cells? Or will Tesla vastly expand battery cell production to keep up with demand for all of its products? Tesla has not indicated any changes, but facing brutal math, they may be forced to make some hard decisions.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-46 ... ction/amp/

[Zalman3]

[Andersen]

Nu har man tydligen startat upp 4680 batteri tillverkning även i Kina.

Screenshot_20221008-034839_YouTube.jpg

1. Man säljer redan MY i USA med 4680 batterier.
2. Det sas att Tesla SEMI inte skulle börja säljas innan man fått ordning på 4680 produktionen, eftersom SEMI behöver väldigt mycket batterier. Och att densiteten på batterierna är viktig. Nu börjar officiella leveranser av SEMI 1 december.
3. Man lovar att bilar med 4680 batterier börjar levereras från Berlin i år.
4. Och nu verkar man vara på gång med 4680 batterier även i Kina.
5. Uttalanden om att man inte längre har en brist på batterier. Gör att Powerpack och Megapack tillverkningen rampas snabbt upp. Vet inte om de har 4680 batterier.
Om inte annat så frigör leveranser av 4680 batterier till biltillverkningen, att flöden av icke 4680 batterier kan styras om till Powerpack och Megapack istället.

Här är vad som sades på conferance callen efter Q3-resultaten:

Elon: "We are finally gaining rapid traction on the 4680 cell. And its output is growing rapidly, and we expect it to start incorporating in cars and having it be a significant portion of our production here in Texas in the coming months. We also have our second generation of manufacturing equipment for 4680 cells in Texas, which continues to show great progress along with our original pilot line in Fremont."

Martin Viecha: The next question is, what is the progress of the 4680 cell ramp? And what factors determine whether vehicles get 2170s versus 4680 cells? And how will that change in the next year?

Zachary Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, ramp is going well, as Elon said. Total output is up 3x quarter over quarter, and production is tracking to exceed 1,000 car cells per week this quarter as we said last quarter. Our focus is now shifting from 100% ramp to cost and further expanding production capacity in North America, as Elon also mentioned. On the 2170 versus 4680, in our factories, we really attempt to minimize factory complexity and product changeover while still making sure we get enough new product into the field to learn how it is performing.

And that sort of mix is going to shift as 4680 scales here and the overall factory ramp proceeds in Texas.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
Right. Basically, production of 4680 ramp is growing exponentially. And yeah, it's going well. We're just looking at this -- just going to be a major back to the future.

Zachary Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer
[Inaudible]

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
Yeah. And like I said, we're -- our goal is to strive toward 1,000 gigawatt hours a year of annualized production in United States alone by Tesla, not including [Inaudible] will be on top of that.

Unknown speaker
We need to get 300 to 400 terawatt hours to accomplish our goal.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
Yes, there's roughly -- to transition to sustainable energy, our calculation for both stationary and vehicles is 300,000 to 400,000 gigawatt hours or 300 to 400 terawatt hours.

Unknown speaker
So, when you're like one tower assembling a lot, well it's a lot of terawatt hours to get.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
Yeah. And on the cathode side, the [Inaudible] we think will probably be iron and most of the iron -- iron can scale to very, very high tonnage and then some nickel. The exact percentages are hard to figure out, but it's probably be twice as much iron cathodes as they [Inaudible]. And then there's the manganese wildcard as well [Inaudible]

Zachary Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer
No. And on that note, we're pursuing aggressively North American iron cathode supplies. And how -- yes, we can talk more about that at a future date.

Pierre Ferragu -- New Street Research -- Analyst
Great. I'd love to have another update on 4680, Drew. So last time we talked about it, there were -- was it was a question about like scaling up with manufacturing and there were still a few things to get right. Is it fair to say that now you are at scale, and it's just a question of logistics to get bigger? So that's question number one.

And then question number two, on the kind of like innovation and cost reduction and efficiency improvements kind of path that you described at the battery day, where are we today? And how much time is it going to take to deliver all the potential you outlined then?

Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering
Well, I'll take the second question first. At Battery Day, we showed a timeline out to 2026 for all of the ideas we had proposed and had shared with everybody then.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
And yeah, I'd be surprised. I think we'll do better than that.

Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering
Yeah. I mean, but just that's the rough -- just give you all -- it's in that order. It's not like a month. It's not six months.

It's six years. And we are executing on all of those different ideas pretty aggressively in parallel with the opex that some people think isn't enough, but we're getting it done.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
I mean I'm not turning down POs.

Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering
Yeah, yeah, yeah. We're great talent, like we find someone awesome, we bring them into the company. And people shouldn't believe we are turning people away.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
Yeah. I mean, it's a hot pond but we're solving it. And I think -- we still feel confident that 4680 will be the most competitive battery cell in the world.

Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering
And it's the whole system around it, right? It's not necessarily a specific form factor. It's the attention to detail on how to bring costs out of the manufacturing process -- or remove processing steps.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
And all the way down from the mine to the cell.

Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering
Yeah, exactly.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
Many steps along the way.

Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering
Yeah. And for those who watched the YouTube videos, like our on-site cathode facilities coming together, I'm really excited about that, which is a part of the plan that we discussed on Battery Day.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
We're possibly lithium refinery.

Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering
In Corpus Christi. So, we're making -- putting our money where our mouths are and all the various efforts that we discussed on Battery Day. On the technical challenges and the ramp question, which is your first question of 4680, no ramp is ever easy even at the end when you're 80% to the end, like it's still very challenging to get to the end. And that sort of leaning out of yields, the final cycle time to achieve target -- you mentioned logistics.

It's not something that we're specifically focused on, I guess, but eventually could be a problem as we're talking about hundreds of gigawatt hours at different sites across the United States. But I would never sit here and say we have no challenges remaining, but we've made a lot of progress reducing technical risk in many areas. Cycle times have dramatically improved. Yield has dramatically improved.

And just walking the line here in Texas, like Martin was walking it yesterday, made some comments to me. You really see the acceleration around you. And we've made a ton of simplifications moving from the Fremont factory to Texas, and it's coming to play in speed of ramp here. And of course, that's on one line of many here in Texas.

So, it's not like factory to factory. It's a multiplication of both simplicity and scale. So yes, we're excited about where it's headed.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
Yeah. And I think, once we are fully integrated, I think we still do see a path to hold roughly $70 kilowatt hour cell -- $70 per kilowatt hour cell before any incentive.

Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering
Before incentive.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
Before incentive. Yeah.


Toni Sacconaghi -- AllianceBernstein -- Analyst
Yes. Thank you. I just wanted to follow up on the 4680 cells and where we are seeing them deployed today. So, are those in the Semis that are being delivered on December 1? Are we seeing them in Model Ys that are being produced out of Austin? And is -- do you anticipate 4680 being a gating factor for Cybertruck ramp later this year? And how do you balance the need for 4680 across Semi, Cybertruck and potentially Model Y in 2023? And I have a follow-up, please.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
Wow. OK. The Semi doesn't use 4680s. Yes.

We are making Model Ys. Some of the Model Ys coming out of Giga Texas are 4680. And I think, Drew, the car you drive around is 4680 Model Y?

Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering
Yes. 10,000 miles.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
Ten thousand miles. Pretty good.

Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering
No problems yet. Yes. Structural back, structural pack.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
Yeah. So -- and yes, I mean, and our output 4680 is growing exponentially. So -- but it's worth bearing in mind like there are entire highly competitive companies that are very smart that all they do is make battery cells. This is simply one segment of Tesla.

So, yes. So it's not a total --

Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering
No, there aren't -- there are challenges still ahead that we have not yet surpassed. No doubt.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
We don't anticipate this being anything like Cybertruck or anything else.